Growers predict a scary glut, I foresee a bottle in every fridge...
April 7, 2006
Commercial wine markets are supposed to be driven, in some part at least, by the epic push and pull of supply and demand. California red wine supply is up this year 27 percent, and white wine is up 25 percent, a huge increase after years of up-and-down overall growth, and people are worried. As you might have guessed, the division between red and white is 60/40 in favor of red production. In 1996 and 1997, it reached 50/50 for the first time, and the divide has only grown since.
But the equal pace of red and white growth in California signals a return of our communal American wine palate to white wines and lighter red wines. After the pendulum swings hard to one side and we drink 17 percent alcohol ink black zinfandel for three years like we have been, there's only one obvious way to go, and that's back toward the lighter end of the wine spectrum. Pinot noir's growing popularity is part of the same phenomenon, I believe, with the momentum of an Oscar and Palme d'Or film attached.
American consumption is tracking up approximately 10 percent every year at about 1 bottle per person per month. An increase of 10 percent means another bottle per year right now, but if it goes on dependably, it means doubling our national wine consumption in fewer than 10 years, to two bottles per person per month. Even at this, America's per capita consumption would still be a quarter of the French average, and only a third of the Italian. We Americans may walk like John Wayne, but we're lightweights when it comes to drinking wine.
Between the 25 percent supply increase and 10 percent consumption increase, there's an international wine effort that's worth fighting, especially since foreign competition sells strongly to the growing US market. We like yummy Australian shiraz just like everybody else, but we can be easily distracted by new flavors and stories: Spain for instance, and look over here -- it's Portugal, now with the Euro! There's a whole planet full of wine people aiming low, around $15 a bottle, maybe a little less on sale. Are California wines willing to fight for it?
Personally, I like the market lop-sided in favor of you and me because it keeps wineries on their toes, engaging and engaged with consumers. California chardonnay and cabernet sauvignon lead the varietals, with zinfandel a close third. Between the three, they dwarf the rest of the wine grapes in the state, so any reinvention has to begin here, and I don't mean more $60 cabernet.
Sold, to the man with a giant bag of money!
There are a handful of admittedly important numbers associated with wine, but wine lovers seem over-captivated sometimes, almost obliged to know them and discuss them with the same glee that car lovers discuss engine displacement and transmissions. Scores awarded or denied by Porker, Expectorator, or Wine Pecuniary are fightin' words. Just mentioning a vintage year or two is like opening The Big Book Of Unending Conversations. Spouses have actually hanged themselves after hearing, for the billionth time, how much you paid for some wine versus how much it sells for now.
For vineyard and winery owners, Jean Phillips of Screaming Eagle surely set some kind of record last week when she sold her winery, which makes only 500 cases a year, for about $30 million. Screaming Eagle attained true cult status -- if that status can be claimed by sheer notoriousness and absence of reason -- in the late 90s. Right now, Screaming Eagle goes for about $300 on release, and the price can rise dramatically, especially at high-end charity fund-raiser events where the wine really shines at auction. Granted, the 59 acres alone are worth $18 million, but the sales price represents the entire revenue from 20 vintages in a row at $250 a bottle.
In price alone this sale virtually forces the wine to compete in perpetuity with the greatest chateaux of Bordeaux, some of which produce 20,000 cases a year, and much more. I'm no mathematician, but this all adds up to a lot of pressure to be perfect on a very tiny production of wine, and that feels fragile.
One of the new co-owners also owns, among other pro teams, basketball's Denver Nuggets, a business that makes trades and engineers turn-arounds. The other is a money guy who presumably does smart things with money.
Sacrament of wine
Passover requires wine; Easter does not. The impetus behind the quest for better-than-good kosher wine is obvious: depending on which Haggadah you use, you're compelled religiously to drink wine more than once, and no real wine lover is going to pass up that obligation.
2002 Recanati Cabernet Sauvignon (about $15) and 2002 Recanati Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve (about $25, distributed nationally by Palm Bay Imports, 800-872-5622)These are two authentic and affordable cabernets that you'd drink again regardless of the fact that they're kosher and grown and produced in Israel. The aromas are flowery and forward, not the least bit shy, and the fruit-to-tannin ratio is very classic. The Reserve is a little formal and restrained, probably good for aging a few years longer, but the mainstream cabernet is round, ripe, and ready to drink now.
For Easter, wine recommendations go one of two ways: Ham 'n' Wine (a tough combination under the best of circumstances, especially tough with Grandma's triple-boiled knuckle of pork, which starts out as ham and ends up a knuckle after three days of thorough over-cooking) or Leg o' Lamb (an easy classic to match). For this Easter, let's all pray for lamb and flavorful French merlot from St. Emilion.
2004 Chateau Michel de Vert (about $8, available nationally at Trader Joe's)St. Emilion is technically a red Bordeaux, but it's grown on the "other" side of the river, across from the city of Bordeaux and the Medoc where all the famous cabernet sauvignon grows. In fact, St. Emilion is mostly merlot, not cabernet, and this grape is also part of its other-ness. The good news for us is that French merlot is softer and friendlier than cabernet much sooner in its life cycle. In most cases, merlot is ready to drink anytime, and this is what modern wine lovers want. This St. Em (Em stands for merlot) is juicy and red, full of blackberry and blueberry with a little dash of black pepper and rosemary. For under $2 a glass, it's another affordable bargain from Trader Joe's.
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